San about Arab NATO
Donald Tramp tries to unite Sunni Arabs and bring them closer to Israel with the sole aim of isolating Iran
Obsessively pressed by Iran, the US president is trying to assemble some Sunni countries in an alliance known as Arab NATO, but too many obstacles have fallen off the Shi'ite aggression blockade. Unlike the Islamic NATO, which Saudi Arabia formed last year to counter terrorism, NATO has the sole aim of isolating Iran.
The idea of creating a security and political ally of the six Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan Saudis suggested Donald Trampe during his last visit to the Kingdom last year. Missile defense consultations, military training and counterterrorism are ongoing and will be on the agenda of the US-Arab summit on October 12-13 in Washington.
"The Middle East Strategic Alliances (MESA) will be a defense against Iranian aggression, terrorism and extremism and will bring stability to the Middle East," a representative of the US National Security Council said.
Expanding the security umbrella over a significant part of the Sunni world, Tramp is trying to repair the damage caused by the disastrous military and political campaigns of Saudi Arabia in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Qatar that have weakened the traditional influence of Riyadh and have strengthened Iran's position as the key force of the Axis of Resistance.
With the strong support of Riyadh, who thinks that on the frontline of the front with Shi'ite Iran, the Tramp administration is doing everything to weaken the theocratic authority in Tehran.
The first wave of sanctions came into force, while others, which will target the vital Iranian oil sector as of November, are expected to exacerbate the increasingly fragile Iranian economy, which is faced with a decline in the value of the national currency, the withdrawal of European capital and the reorientation of some of Iranian oil buyers sources of supply.
The political and economic prerequisites for pressure on Iran are there, and the assessment is that they should also add a military dimension at a time when Arab allies are confused: on the one hand, Tramp's anti-Iranian rhetoric, the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and sanctions, on the other offers to leaders in Tehran for a direct meeting.
The military threat is considered welcome, but how practical is it that Arab regimes overcome mutual differences and avoid pulling them short-term goals?
Tramp thinks the idea is genius and original and must succeed.
Tehran does not seem to be worried and is ready to confront encouraged by the knowledge that history has sent a message that similar attempts by the Soviet Union to collectively protect the region from the influence of the Soviet Union have been buried in the sand of the Middle East: "Blickoist command", "Middle Eastern Defense" or "Baghdad Pact".
Some Arab countries that Tramp pushes to MESA are closer to Iran than to Saudi Arabia, such as Qatar and Oman, while others, Kuwait, for example, are trying to stay neutral.
Russian Sputnik, referring to Russian and Israeli analysts, leaves the possibility for Israel to join Arab NATO. Such an opportunity was left open to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the event that Tehran blocked the bridge at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. "If Iran tries to block Bab el Mandeb, I am confident that he will face a decisive international coalition to prevent him. That coalition would also include the State of Israel and all its weapons. "
"The possibility of such a coalition is quite real, as Israel, the United States and Saudi Arabia have a common interest in opposing Iran," said Simon Tsipis, an analyst at the Israeli National Security Studies Institute, reminding that Egypt and Jordan have signed a peace deal with Israel since 1979
Most analysts doubt, however, the possibility of a public alliance between Israel and the Arabs.
In order for the Arabs to accept Israel, Netanyahu would first have to solve the Palestinian problem - which at this moment does not work realistically - so the "Arab Street" does not trust the Western powers that support Israel at the cost of stifling Palestinian rights.
The tram is on its way to miss: it seeks to bring the conservative Gulf States closer to Israel as their strategic ally in competition with Iran. Most Arabs, except in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, however consider that the United States and Israel are still a threat to their security today than Iran.
"The Arabs will continue to look at Israel as enemies number one, not Iran," the editorial writes in the Jordanian Times, which confirms the Iranian assessment that hostility to Tehran can not even under the American umbrella assemble the decomposing Arabs.
How sustainable is collective security within the Gulf Cooperation Council when Americans 14 months ago barely prevented the military intervention of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates against Qatar, members of the Alliance accusing them of co-operating with Iran, supporting Muslim Brotherhood and Terrorism, and committing a complete blockade ?
The Gulf States are far from being homogeneous, and how MESA works effectively when QAAR is the largest American air base in the region?
The Tramp, as in the case with Western allies in NATO, wants to dismantle America and significantly shift the cost of regional security to the Middle East to the Arabs. Rich Gulf States can handle this, as confirmed by last year's US $ 167 billion US weapons procurement. May I have Egypt and Jordan? Difficult.
By turning to the side of the Sunita, Tramp encourages the dangerous sectarian divisions of the region that is already in the storm of the Sunni-Shi'ite conflict. New pressure on Iran will only assemble the Shiites around Tehran, while open support to totalitarian and autocratic regimes risks the Arab Spring to be repeated.
The question is how many potential and traditionally daring partners in general believe the White House chief, who has shown that he is sharper with allies rather than enemies. In all, it does not act as a policy aimed at reducing regional tension and creating a more stable Middle East.
Instead of advising Arab allies to learn to share the Middle East with Iran, the White House chief is pushing them to war. "President Tramp would do us a greater service if he would help the Arabs and Iranians build the destroyed state institutions," commentator Al Jazeera writes. "What we need to ensure stability and security for all countries in the region is the Marshall Plan."
However, it should not be expected from Donald Tramp.
